Changing minds about electric cars: An empirically grounded agent-based modeling approach

Manuscript under peer review. Do not cite or circulate without authors' permission. Abstract The diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered an effective policy strategy to meet greenhouse gas reduction targets. For large-scale adoption, however, demand-side oriented policy measures are required, based on consumers' transport needs, values and social norms. We introduce an empirically grounded, spatially explicit, agent-based model, InnoMind Innovation diffusion driven by changing MINDs), to simulate the effects of policy interventions and social influence on consumers' transport mode preferences. The agents in this model represent individual consumers. They are calibrated based on empirically derived attributes and characteristics of survey respondents. We model agent decision-making with artificial neural networks that account for the role of emotions in information processing. We present simulations of 4 scenarios for the diffusion of EVs in the city of Berlin, Germany (3 policy scenarios and 1 base case). The results illustrate the varying effectiveness of measures in different market segments and the need for appropriate policies tailored to the heterogeneous needs of different travelers. Moreover, the simulations suggest that introducing an exclusive zone for EVs in the city would accelerate the early-phase diffusion of EVs more effectively than financial incentives only. 1. Introduction Electric vehicles (EVs– Plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles) are seen as a promising technology to reduce carbon emissions and achieve the transition to more sustainable transport. Comprehensive investment in research and development, e.g. in battery technology, is essential to achieve these goals, but technological development alone will not ensure the large-scale diffusion of such innovations. For successful dissemination of new technologies it is also necessary to address the demand side (e. we have developed an agent-based model of consumer perceptions and decisions related to innovation adoption in sustainable transport. While focused on EVs as a technological innovation, our model also helps to answer questions about broader social innovations; i.e., changes in habits and behavioral patterns related to transport. In particular, increasing the use of public transport, bicycles, and car sharing is considered by some as the more important challenge when it comes to organizing the societal transition to more sustainable transport (e. more than technology adoption, large-scale changes in behavioral patterns depend on the decisions of individual consumers. Numerous studies in psychology have addressed environmental decision-making at the level of individual minds (e. but these studies often neglect the complex interactions with broader societal development and the role of other …